Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Progress of research on evaluation indicators and standards about high-speed train comfort / 中华劳动卫生职业病杂志

The rapid development of high-speed railway in China has proposed higher requests for the comfort level of high-speed trains. However, there is no internationally unified evaluation criterion for high-speed train comfort currently, which therefore substantially affects the comparability and standardization of research results for high-speed train comfort. This paper systematically reviews the research literature about evaluation indicators and standards related to high-speed train comfort, and finds that there is currently no unified definition, evaluation indicators, as well as evaluation criterion for high-speed train comfort. Most current evaluation criteria are based on a single indicator. Some indicators are simultaneously developed by different apartments and differ between each other, and there is no comprehensive indicator or criteria for high-speed train comfort, restricting the comparison of high-speed train comfort across regions. It is recommended that the administrative department of high-speed railroad in China should organize experts to establish a unified definition of high-speed train comfort, comprehensive evaluation indicators and relevant judgment criteria for high-speed train comfort, in face of the rapid development and globalization of high-speed trains.

Progress on epidemiological characteristics and interventions of pedestrian distraction / 中华流行病学杂志

Pedestrian distraction is one of the important risk factors of road injury. This review summarized the epidemiological characteristics, influencing factors, safety implications, and the published intervention measures. The review found that: a) the prevalence of pedestrian distraction poses a serious threat to pedestrian safety, but most epidemiological studies on pedestrian distraction focus on mobile phone use, and the incidence of pedestrian distraction varied greatly across studies using various research methods and from different countries; b) demographic characteristics, social psychology, and environment are the three main influencing factors of pedestrian distraction; c) distraction differently affected physiology, cognition, motion control, efficiency and behavior of pedestrian's street-crossing to some degrees, threatening the safety of pedestrian; d) engineering interventions and education were the most common interventions to prevent pedestrian distraction currently, but the effectiveness of most measures was not assessed rigorously. In the future, multidisciplinary and systematic epidemiological studies are recommended to design interventions purposely and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions through rigorous designs, providing scientific evidence for reducing pedestrian distraction and improving road safety of pedestrians.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Road traffic injury mortality and morbidity by country development status, 2011-2017 / 中华创伤杂志(英文版)

PURPOSE@#This research examined road traffic injury mortality and morbidity disparities across of country development status, and discussed the possibility of reducing country disparities by various actions to accelerate the pace of achieving Sustainable Development Goals target 3.6 - to halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents by 2020.@*METHODS@#Data for road traffic mortality, morbidity, and socio-demographic index (SDI) were extracted by country from the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease study, and the implementation of the three types of national actions (legislation, prioritized vehicle safety standards, and trauma-related post-crash care service) were extracted from the Global Status Report on Road Safety by World Health Organization. We fitted joinpoint regression analysis to identify and quantify the significant rate changes from 2011 to 2017.@*RESULTS@#Age-adjusted road traffic mortality decreased substantially for all the five SDI categories from 2011 to 2017 (by 7.52%-16.08%). Age-adjusted road traffic mortality decreased significantly as SDI increased in the study time period, while age-adjusted morbidity generally increased as SDI increased. Subgroup analysis by road user yielded similar results, but with two major differences during the study period of 2011 to 2017: (1) pedestrians in the high SDI countries experienced the lowest mortality (1.68-1.90 per 100,000 population) and morbidity (110.45-112.72 per 100,000 population for incidence and 487.48-491.24 per 100,000 population for prevalence), and (2) motor vehicle occupants in the high SDI countries had the lowest mortality (4.07-4.50 per 100,000 population) but the highest morbidity (428.74-467.78 per 100,000 population for incidence and 1025.70-1116.60 per 100,000 population for prevalence). Implementation of the three types of national actions remained nearly unchanged in all five SDI categories from 2011 to 2017 and was consistently stronger in the higher SDI countries than in the lower SDI countries. Lower income nations comprise the heaviest burden of global road traffic injuries and deaths.@*CONCLUSION@#Global road traffic deaths would decrease substantially if the large mortality disparities across country development status were reduced through full implementation of proven national actions including legislation and law enforcement, prioritized vehicle safety standards and trauma-related post-crash care services.

Global road traffic injury statistics: Challenges, mechanisms and solutions / 中华创伤杂志(英文版)

High-quality data are the foundation to monitor the progress and evaluate the effects of road traffic injury prevention measures. Unfortunately, official road traffic injury statistics delivered by governments worldwide, are often believed somewhat unreliable and invalid. We summarized the reported problems concerning the road traffic injury statistics through systematically searching and reviewing the literature. The problems include absence of regular data, under-reporting, low specificity, distorted cause spectrum of road traffic injury, inconsistency, inaccessibility, and delay of data release. We also explored the mechanisms behind the problematic data and proposed the solutions to the addressed challenges for road traffic statistics.

Left-turning vehicle-pedestrian conflicts at signalized intersections with traffic lights: Benefit or harm? A two-stage study / 中华创伤杂志(英文版)

PURPOSE@#Vehicle-pedestrian conflicts are common at road intersections when traffic lights change. However, the impact of traffic light on transportation safety and efficiency remains poorly understood.@*METHODS@#A two-stage study was used to survey the proportion of intersections with conflicting traffic lights and the related transportation efficiency and safety were evaluated as well. First, a cross-sectional study estimated the proportion of signalized intersections with conflicting left-turning vehicle-pedestrian traffic lights in Changsha city, China. Second, a natural experiment compared transportation efficiency and safety between intersections with and without conflicting left-turning vehicle-pedestrian traffic lights. Risky conflicts, where motor vehicles violated laws and failed to yield to pedestrians in crosswalk were used as a surrogate for transportation safety. The number of motor vehicles and pedestrians passing through the intersections per second and per meter were used to estimate transportation efficiency. Data were collected and analyzed in 2015 (from March to December). A search of online news from domestic media sources was also conducted to collect pedestrian injury data occurring at the intersections.@*RESULTS@#About one-fourth (57/216) intersections had conflicting left-turning traffic lights (95% CI: 20.5%, 32.3%). Risky vehicle-pedestrian conflicts were more frequently observed at intersections with conflicting lights compared to those without (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 3.13; pedestrians: IRR = 4.02), after adjusting for type of day (weekday vs. weekend), the time period of observation, and motor vehicles traffic flow. Intersections without conflicting vehicle-pedestrian traffic lights had similar transportation efficiency to those with conflicting lights after controlling for covariates (p > 0.05). The systematic review of news media reports yielded 10 left-turning vehicle-pedestrian crash events between 2011 and 2017, involving 11 moderate or severe pedestrian injuries and 3 fatal pedestrian injuries.@*CONCLUSION@#Over one-fourth of road intersections in Changsha city, China have conflicting left-turning traffic lights. Conflicting traffic lights cannot improve transportation efficiency, but increase risky conflicts between vehicles and pedestrians.

A study on drug resistance and disinfection -resistant gene qac(A/B)in Staphylococcus aureus / 预防医学

Objective To study the drug resistance and disinfection -resistant gene in Staphylococcus aureus isolates. Methods The sensitivity to 17 antibacterial agents was detected in 36 strains of Staphylococcus aureus by E -test.The disinfection -resistant genes qac (A /B ) were detected by PCR.Results The resistance rates of clindamycin, ciprofloxacin,erythromycin,levofloxacin,oxacillin and penicillin G were 94.44%,75.00%,94.44%,72.22%, 97.22% and 100.00%,respectively.There were no significantly difference of drug resistance rates between isolates from ICU setting and non -ICU setting (P >0.05 ),and 14 (38.89%)isolates were qac (A /B)positive.Conclusion Clinically isolated staphylococcus aureus is multi -drug -resistant and the qac (A /B)positive rate is high.

Specific targeting of angiogenesis in lung cancer with RGD-conjugated ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide particles using a 4.7T magnetic resonance scanner / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Angiogenesis is an essential step for tumor development and metastasis. The cell adhesion molecule avβ3 integrin plays an important role in angiogenesis and is a specific marker of tumor angiogenesis. A novel avβ3 integrin- targeted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging contrast agent utilizing Arg-Gly-Asp (RGD) and ultrasmall superparamagnetic iron oxide particles (USPIO) (referred to as RGD-USPIO) was designed and its uptake by endothelial cells was assessed both in vitro and in vivo to evaluate the angiogenic profile of lung cancer.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>USPIO were coated with -NH3+ and conjugated with RGD peptides. Prussian blue staining was performed to evaluate the specific uptake of RGD-USPIO by human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs). Targeted uptake and subcellular localization of RGD-USPIO in HUVECs were confirmed by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The ability of RGD-USPIO to noninvasively assess avβ3 integrin positive vessels in lung adenocarcinoma A549 tumor xenografts was evaluated with a 4.7T MR scanner. Immunohistochemistry was used to detect avβ3 integrin expression and vessel distribution in A549 tumor xenografts.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>HUVECs internalized RGD-USPIO significantly more than plain USPIO. The uptake of RGD-USPIO by HUVECs could be competitively inhibited by addition of free RGD. A significant decrease in T2 signal intensity (SI) was observed at the periphery of A549 tumor xenografts at 30 minutes (P < 0.05) and 2 hours (P < 0.01) after RGD-USPIO was injected via the tail vein. Angiogenic blood vessels were mainly distributed in the periphery of tumor xenografts with positive avβ3 integrin expression.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>RGD-USPIO could specifically label avβ3 integrin and be taken up by HUVECs. This molecular MR imaging contrast agent can specifically evaluate the angiogenic profile of lung cancer using a 4.7T MR scanner.</p>

Pedestrian mortality between 2006 and 2010 in China: findings from non-police reported data / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Pedestrian safety in China is an important but largely neglected issue, in part due to the substantial under-reporting within police data. In this study we aimed to examine changes in pedestrian fatality between 2006 and 2010 in China using non-police reported data. A multi-year study was conducted based on the mortality data during 2006-2010 from the Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) data in China. Between 2006 and 2010, the crude pedestrian mortality increased from 7.0 to 10.5 per 100 000 populations. Annual pedestrian mortality from DSP data was 13 times in 2006 and 55 times in 2010 mortality for pedestrians and passengers from police-reported data in the corresponding years. After controlling for sex, age, and urban/rural, the mortality increased by 44% from 2006 to 2010 (adjusted mortality rate ratio (MRR)=1.11, 95% CI 1.10-1.12). The problem of pedestrian deaths is much more serious in China than that officially reported by the police. Significant and urgent efforts are needed to save lives of pedestrian in China.

Epidemiological survey of the prevalence of non-fatal injury among children aged 5-14 years in China / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To determine the prevalence of non-fatal injuries among children aged 5-14 years in China.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Data of 21 973 children aged 5-14 years were extracted from the Fourth National Health Service Survey of China carried out between June 15 and July 10, 2008. Injury-related indicators included: history of ever having had an injury, and injury frequency, cause, location and severity.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The overall prevalence of non-fatal injuries among the children in the previous 12 months was 17.0 per 1000 subjects. The leading causes of non-fatal injuries were falls, animal bites, traffic accidents, falling objects and burns. The majority of children sustained only one injury. The main place of injury was at home in 40% and 54% of urban boys and girls, respectively, at school in 48% of rural boys, and at home and at school each in 33% of rural girls. Medical treatment for one day was the main option for 80% of urban boys and girls, 84% of rural boys, and 72% of rural girls.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Nonfatal injuries among children aged 5-14 years are a serious public health concern in China.</p>

A case-control study on the risk factors of work-related acute pesticide poisoning among farmersfrom Jiangsu province / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the risk factors on cases regarding work-related acute pesticide poisoning among farmers of Jiangsu province.Methods A population-based,1 ∶ 2 matched case-control study was carried out,with 121 patients as case-group paired by 242 persons with same gender,district and age less then difference of 3 years,as controls.Cases were the ones who had suffered from work-related acute pesticide poisoning.A unified questionnaire was used.Data base was established by EpiData 3.1,and SPSS 16.0 was used for both data single factor and multi-conditional logistics regression analysis.Results Results from the single factor logistic regression analysis showed that the related risk factors were:lack of safety guidance,lack of readable labels befores praying pesticides,no regression during application,using hand to wipe sweat,using leaking knapsack,body contaminated during application and continuing to work when feeling ill after the contact of pesticides.Results from multi-conditional logistic regression analysis indicated that the lack of safety guidance (OR=2.25,95％ CI:1.35-3.74),no readable labels befores praying pesticides (OR=1.95,95％ CI:1.19-3.18),wiping the sweat by hand during application (OR=1.97,95％CI:1.20-3.24)and using leaking knapsack during application (OR=1.82,95％ CI:1.10-3.01) were risk factors for the occurrence of work-related acute pesticide poisoning.Conclusion The lack of safety guidance,no readable labels befores praying pesticides,wiping the sweat by hand or using leaking knapsack during application were correlated to the occurrence of work-related acute pesticide poisoning.

Epidermal growth factor receptor-targeted ultra-small superparamagnetic iron oxide particles for magnetic resonance molecular imaging of lung cancer cells in vitro / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>BACKGROUND</b>Magnetic resonance (MR) molecular imaging can detect abnormalities associated with disease at the level of cell and molecule. The epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) plays an important role in the development of lung cancer. This study aimed to explore new MR molecular imaging targeting of the EGFR on lung cancer cells.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We attached ultra-small superparamagnetic iron oxide (USPIO) particles to cetuximab (C225) anti-human IgG using the carbodiimide method. We made the molecular MR contrast agents C225-USPIO and IgG-USPIO, the latter as a control reagent, and determined concentrations according to the Fe content. Lung cancer A549 cells were cultured and immunocytochemistry (SP) was used to detect the expression of EGFR on cells. We detected the binding rate of C225-USPIO to A549 cells with immunofluorescence staining and flow cytometry. We cultured A549 cells with C225-USPIO at a Fe concentration of 50 µg/ml and assayed the binding of C225-USPIO after 1 hour with Prussian blue staining and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). We determined the effects on imaging of the contrast agent targeted to cells using a 4.7T MRI. We did scanning on the cells labeled with C225-USPIO, IgG-USPIO, and distilled water, respectively. The scanning sequences included axial T1WI, T2WI.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Immunocytochemical detection of lung cancer A549 cells found them positive for EGFR expression. Immunofluorescence staining and flow cytometry after cultivation with different concentrations of C225-USPIO showed the binding rate higher than the control. Prussian blue staining and transmission electron microscopy revealed that in the C225-USPIO contrast agent group of cells the particle content of Fe in cytoplasmic vesicles or on surface was more than that in the control group. The 4.7T MR imaging (MRI) scan revealed the T2WI signal in the C225-USPIO group of cells decreased significantly more than in unlabeled cells, but there was no significant difference between the time gradients.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>We successfully constructed the molecular imaging agent C225-USPIO targeting the EGFR of A549 lung cancer cells. The imaging agent showed good targeting effect and specificity, and reduced MRI T2 value significantly, thus such molecular contrast agents could provide a new way to measure EGFR levels.</p>

An epidemiological survey on the incidence of non-fatal injury and influencing factors among children under 5 years old in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To determine the incidence of non-fatal injuries and related influencing factors among children under 5 years old in China. Methods Data involving 10 819 children under 5 years old was from the Fourth National Health Service Survey of China. Injury-related indicators include: history of ever having had an injury, its frequency, cause, location and severity of the injury.A two-level Poissun regression was used to examine the significance of related socio-economic variables. Results The overall incidence rate of nonfatal injuries among children under 5 years old was 16.0 per 1000 population in the prior 12 months. The first three leading causes of non-fatal injuries were falls,animal bite, fire/bum among children under 1 year old,with the rates as 3.9, 1.8 and 1.8 per 1000 population, respectively. For children aged I to 4 years old, the first three leading causes were animal bite, fall, fire/burn with rates as 6.5,6.0 and 2.9 per 1000 population, respectively. 83.0% and 69.0% of last injuries occurred at home for the above said two age groups. No disability was found among children younger than 1 year old who suffered from a nonfatal injury while for the 1-4 age group, the disability accounted for 1.0% of injury-induced outcomes. After adjusting other variables,boys had 1.57 times the risk of injury compared with girls in the 1-4 age group (P＜0.05). The differences on the effects regarding ethmicity,per capita household income, and place were insignificant (P＞0.05). None of the socio-economic variables was found that significantly related to the non-fatal injury risk among children under 1 year old (P＞0.05). Conclusion The incidence of nonfatal injuries among children under 5 years old was 16.0 per 1000 population in the prior 12 months. The three leading causes of injuries were animal bite, falls, fire/bum respectively. Home was the most common place that non-fatal injuries occurred. Boys had a higher risk of injury compared with girls among children aged 1 to 4 years old and the difference was significant.

Application of Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model in dealing with an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis on one school campus / 中华流行病学杂志

To simulate intervention measures in controlling an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis on one school campus by using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model, to provide evidence for preparedness and response to the epidemic. Classical SIR model was used to model the epidemic. Malthusian exponential decline method was employed to estimate the infective coefficient β for interventions. The initial value of parameters was determined based on empirical data. The modeling was implemented using Matlab 7.1 software. Without interventions, the outbreak was expected to experience three phrases: (1)early stage (the first 5 days) in which the epidemic developed slowly and could be intervened easily; (2) rapid growing stage (6-15 days) in which the number of infected cases increased quickly and the epidemic could not be well controlled;and (3) medium and late stage (16 days and later) in which more than 90% of the susceptible persons were infected but the intervention measures failed to prevent the epidemic. With the implementation of interventions, the epidemic was predicted to be controlled in the early stage, under the SIR model. The simulation based on the SIR model kept an acceptable consistency with the actual development of epidemic after the implementation of intervention measures. The SIR model seemed effective in modeling interventions to the epidemic of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in the schools.

Assessment of capacity for logisty, public education, and training in public health emergency management in China / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To assess the capacity for logistics, public education, and training in managing public health emergency in China at present.@*METHODS@#Four provinces were selected using stratified sampling. All the municipalities of these 4 provinces were assessed using the 9th and 10th subscales (logistics, public education and training) of Preparedness and response capacity questionnaire for public health emergencies for provincial or municipal governments developed by the Center for Health Statistics and Information, Ministry of Health of China.@*RESULTS@#Sixty of the 66 questionnaires (90.91%) were collected. Among the 60 investigated municipalities, 80% established a specific agency to take charge of emergency material storage, management and allocation, 65% developed standard for material storage, 35% developed standard of places for material storage, 25% built regulation for testing, maintaining, and updating the emergency materials regularly, 45% arranged budget for routine payment, 27% established standard of emergency fund, and 28% set up the procedure to initiate emergency fund. The average of standard score of subscale 9 was 43.33 (95% confidence interval, 35.65~51.01). 25% of the 60 municipalities conducted assessment for training in the past 2 years, 53% developed plan for emergency personnel training, 20% developed effectiveness assessment regulation of emergency personnel training, 80% assigned a specific agency to be responsible for public education, and 23% established regulation for public education. The average of standard score of subscale 10 was 47.43 (95% confidence interval, 40.69~54.17).@*CONCLUSION@#Serious problems are found in logistics, public education, and training for public health emergency management in China. Measures should be taken immediately by the central and local government to improve these capacities.

Development and testing of a preparedness and response capacity questionnaire in public health emergency for Chinese provincial and municipal governments / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To develop a capacity questionnaire in public health emergency for Chinese local governments.@*METHODS@#Literature reviews, conceptual modelling, stake-holder analysis, focus group, interview, and Delphi technique were employed together to develop the questionnaire. Classical test theory and case study were used to assess the reliability and validity.@*RESULTS@#(1) A 2-dimension conceptual model was built. A preparedness and response capacity questionnaire in public health emergency with 10 dimensions and 204 items, was developed. (2) Reliability and validity results. Internal consistency: except for dimension 3 and 8, the Cronbach's alpha coefficient of other dimensions was higher than 0.60. The alpha coefficients of dimension 3 and dimension 8 were 0.59 and 0.39 respectively; Content validity: the questionnaire was recognized by the investigatees; Construct validity: the Spearman correlation coefficients among the 10 dimensions fluctuated around 0.50, ranging from 0.26 to 0.75 (P0.05). Criterion-related validity: case study showed significant difference among the 10 dimensions in Beijing between February 2003 (before SARS event) and November 2005 (after SARS event).@*CONCLUSION@#The preparedness and response capacity questionnaire in public health emergency is a reliable and valid tool, which can be used in all provinces and municipalities in China.

Brief self-administered risk questionnaire for common nutrition-related diseases in middle school students / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To develop a self-administered risk questionnaire for common nutrition-related diseases in middle school students.@*METHODS@#Two phases were conducted to develop the questionnaire: scale development and validation. Phase 1 included 7 steps: (1) determining the objective, theoretical framework, principles and format for indicator generation; (2) setting up the preliminary indicator pool; (3) selecting indicators and forming pilot questionnaire through focus groups; (4) testing the pilot questionnaire; (5) further correcting the questionnaire using expert consultation; (6) choosing indicators again using good-poor analysis; and (7) shaping the final questionnaire. Phase 2 consisted of: (1) using the Pearson correlation coefficient to assess test-retest reliability; (2) using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient to assess the internal consistency reliability; (3) using the feedback from field investigation to assess face validity; and (4) using explanatory factor analysis to assess construct validity. Students from 96 classes were selected at random in Hunan Province as the field test samples using stratified sampling and cluster sampling. And the students from 4 out of the 96 classes were chosen again to serve as the test-retest samples. We used Epidata 3.0 to build the database and SPSS 11.0 to analyze the data.@*RESULTS@#A brief self-administered risk questionnaire for common nutrition-related diseases in middle school students with 12 items being formed after Phase 1. Good-poor analysis showed results from t tests for each item were statistically significant (P<0.05). The Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.76 (P<0.05) and the Cronbach's alpha coefficient was 0.56. The questionnaire was accepted by the students participating in the field test. Four common factors were extracted using explanatory factor analysis, accounting for 50.18% of the total variation.@*CONCLUSION@#The brief self-administered risk questionnaire for common nutrition-related diseases in middle school students is reliable and valid.